Contact Tracing Shows Just 20 Percent of Positive Cases Observe Quarantine

The “extensive lockdown” in force across Iran entered its 11th day on December 1, with health officials claiming that public compliance with the stringent protocols stood at 90 percent. But the figures show that inter-city travel in areas on a high state of alert continues.

According to the health ministry, from Wednesday, December 2, the alert level in 38 Iranian cities will be downgraded from “red” to “orange”, meaning some restrictions can be eased. On the other hand, the grade of 23 other cities has gone from “orange” to “red”, meaning even tighter restrictions may be necessary.

It is too soon to make a definite judgment about the effectiveness of this lockdown. But for several days now, the number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities announced by the health ministry has been below the 400 mark – which suggests the situation may have somewhat improved.

“Our criteria for alert levels is the number of hospitalizations per 100,000 population,” said Alireza Raeesi, the deputy director of Tehran National Coronavirus Taskforce. “A city is red if more than 10 patients for each 100,000 are hospitalized. More than six [and up to 10] daily hospitalizations per 100,000 thousand, and the city is orange. Four hospitalizations per 100,000 people make the city yellow. Our criteria is not based on the number of fatalities. It is the same everywhere in the world.”

The Question of National ID Cards

On Sunday, November 29, health ministry spokeswoman Dr. Sima Sadat Lari had said that infected individuals could be identified in under a second based on their national ID cards and would be prevented from entering government offices or using public transportation. But today Nader Tavakoli, deputy director of Tehran Coronavirus Taskforce, said that under the present conditions, this cannot be achieved across the board and is only feasible at airports and railway stations. Nevertheless, Alireza Raeesi reiterated that this measure will come into force from next week – meaning that, starting on December 5, anybody who visits a government office must carry his or her national ID card.

73 Percent of Positive Cases Violate Quarantine

Contract tracing through mobile phones that started in Tehran on November 21 shows that so far, only 20 percent of those who have tested positive for coronavirus comply with quarantining instructions and 73 percent violate it, reported Dr. Alireza Zali, director of Tehran’s Coronavirus Taskforce. He called the situation a “time bomb” that cannot be ignored.

Dr. Zali also reported that, from next week, more rapid coronavirus test kits will be distributed, but only to government hospitals.

Provinces Round-up

Isfahan has been in a critical situation but, according to provincial officials, 11 days after the enactment of lockdowns the situation is now improving. “Over the last week, as a result of these restrictions, 400 hospital beds were freed up and the daily number of hospitalizations fell by 40,” said Dr. Kamal Heydari, vice president of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences. “Naturally, when fewer patients are hospitalized the number of fatalities falls as well, and the patients get a better service from health providers.”

Nevertheless, he expressed alarm that many people were not observing social distancing in various public spaces and on public transport. “Many people call health centers and say that this or that school, gym or shop is either open, or not following health protocols – but it is not us they should be reporting it to,” he said. “Each agency must be responsible for entities under its supervision and take action if violations occur.”

In the past 24 hours in Alborz province, nine more patients lost their lives to Covid-19, bringing the total for the province to 2,317. In the same time period 95 new patients with Covid-19 symptoms were hospitalized in Alborz. Currently 796 confirmed and suspected cases of coronavirus are being treated in hospitals across the province, reported Dr. Mohammad Fathi, president of Alborz University of Medical Sciences.

In Yazd province, the situation is still “not normal” , said Ebrahim Soleimani, a spokesman for Yazd University of Medical Sciences. In the past 24 hours, he said, 13 more Covid-19 patients had died in Yazd, while 224 people had newly tested positive for coronavirus and 116 of them were in hospital. Currently 651 patients with Covid-19 symptoms are in hospital in Yazd, with 166 in ICUs.

Soleimani asked people not to assume that the situation was “back to normal” just because the numbers seemed to be going down. “People must take coronavirus seriously or the situation will become critical again,” he said.

Iran’s Latest Coronavirus Statistics

In her daily briefing for December 1, health ministry spokeswoman Dr. Sima Sadat Lari announced the official coronavirus statistics for the past 24 hours:

Dr. Lari also reported that all 31 Iranian provinces are in red, orange or yellow states of alert.

This is part of IranWire's coronavirus chronology. Read the full chronology