The coronavirus pandemic in several provinces in Iran has become worse by the day, a situation that has been ongoing for weeks. According to the criteria set by the health ministry, 28 provinces are on either an emergency (red) or high (orange) state of alert. In the last two weeks, only the three provinces — Khuzestan, Kermanshah and Kurdistan — have witnessed an ease in the pandemic. Yet President Rouhani claims that about 10 provinces have already peaked in numbers and are moving toward a recovery. Rouhani also claimed that the provinces where cases have already peaked have not witnessed a second spike, but the current situations in Golestan, Mazandaran, Tehran, Isfahan and Razavi Khorasan clearly show that this claim is utterly baseless.
"The statistics and reports presented at today's meeting were promising regarding the situation in the provinces,” the president told a National Coronavirus Taskforce meeting on August 1. “Until today, every province that has entered a period of the illness and has experienced problems has not witnessed a second peak. This is what people have gained by observing health protocols. If this continues, there will be good news in the coming weeks." He did not name the provinces he was talking about, so it is not possible to accurately fact-check his claim. However, in the last week, the three provinces listed above are the only places where the crisis has eased a little. No other province has witnessed a meaningful change for the better.
He reiterated the importance of following health guidance and protocols when referring to the forthcoming mourning ceremonies for the martyrdom of Imam Hossein, a topic he has touched on daily in recent weeks. ”With the arrival of Muharram [the lunar Islamic calendar month when most of these ceremonies take place], every street and alleyway should be characterized by an atmosphere of mourning. This year, mourning will be different. We must fully observe the health protocols that will be specified, approved and announced next week.”
On July 31, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said mourning ceremonies should follow guidelines set by the National Coronavirus Taskforce. On August 1, in a letter to Khamenei, a group of Shia eulogists promised to abide by his directive. And, in a statement, the Council of Iranian Religious Societies announced that all member societies must follow Khamenei’s advice.
All gatherings in Iran must have the approval of the National Coronavirus Taskforce and provincial coronavirus taskforces. Any gatherings not approved will be banned, the council said, and anyone organizing such an event will suffer consequences if they do not follow this directive. The statement also suggested new ideas for holding mourning ceremonies, chiefly through using the internet and TV networks.
Traditionally, Ardebil holds huge ceremonies to mourn the martyrdom of Imam Hossein and this has raised serious concerns among health officials. The province is in a red state of alert and Dr. Shahram Habibzadeh, president of Ardebil University of Medical Sciences, warned that people were not adhering to health guidelines, posing a profound risk that coronavirus will spread to an even greater degree. The number of cases is rising, both in hospitals and in the community, he said, adding that the number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients had reached 393 and nine patients had died in the last 24 hours.
Akbar Behnamjou, governor of Ardebil province, announced that people were not allowed to hold mourning ceremonies in homes, but that the ceremonies could only be held in line with all health guidelines, away from crowded indoor spaces.
Real Figures Published by BBC Persian
The Iranian health ministry’s official policy has been to not test people with coronavirus symptoms unless they are over 60 years of age or in a critical condition. And yet, Rouhani announced that "continued testing to identify people with the disease is the way to deal with it” and insisted: “We must know who the carriers are, so that after identifying infected people, we can separate them from society.”
In the meantime, BBC Persian reported that the actual number of deaths from Covid-19 in Iran is 42,000.
BBC Persian reported it had received leaked medical evidence about the real coronavirus death toll in Iran, as well as lists of the names of those who have died, confirming global speculation that the Iranian government has been concealing true figures regarding the pandemic. According to this report, as of July 20, 42,000 people had died — more than three times higher than the official figure, which the government had most recently reported as 16,766.
According to this information, 52 coronavirus deaths were registered in February 2020. Official Iranian statistics make no mention of any coronavirus death before February 20 when, according to Iranian officials, only two people had died of Covid-19.
According to the data supplied to BBC Persian, since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak in Iran, up to July 20, 8,120 people died from suspected Covid-19 in Tehran province, the highest death toll among all provinces in Iran. In recent months IranWire has received daily figures from Tehran Behesht Zahra cemetery based on death certificates. According to these figures, as of July 20, around 7,300 Covid-19 victims had been buried in Behesht Zahra Cemetery. This figure was confirmed by the Nahid Khoda-Karami, chairwoman of Tehran City Council’s Health Committee.
In response to the BBC Persian report based on leaked documents, Dr. Sima Sadat Lari, the health ministry’s spokeswoman, claimed that from very first day of the outbreak of coronavirus, Iran has consistently followed standards set by the World Health Organization.
Will a Mutation Mean the Virus will be Even More Deadly?
On August 1, Khoda-Karami said the coronavirus death toll in Tehran had reached 8,600. Comparison of these two numbers presents the conclusion that the bodies of more than 800 Covid-19 victims were buried in other cemeteries in Tehran or in other provinces.
Khoda-Karami also said Tehran was still in a red state of alert, the daily coronavirus death toll in the capital is still close to 100 or even higher, ICU beds have been completely filled and if the number of cases rise it will lead to a disaster because of the shortage of medical facilities.
Patients who currently visit medical centers are in a more serious condition, reported Dr. Alireza Zali, director of Tehran Coronavirus Taskforce, and he warned that this increased the chances of medical staff becoming infected. He said some studies had suggested that the coronavirus had gone through a mutation that makes it eight times more virulent.
A third of the executive branch of Tehran province’s government will continue to work remotely for another week, announced Anooshirvan Mohseni Bandpey, Tehran’s governor. He also said that traffic restrictions would remain in place for another week because gatherings, especially in public transportation system, has led to a more widespread transmission of coronavirus in Tehran.
Hamedan is still in a red state of alert but Saeed Shahrokhi, the governor of the province, announced that nine restrictions imposed in the last week of July had been lifted, except for the lockdown of reception halls and restaurants. According to him, five cities in the province are in a red state of alert, three are “orange” and one is “yellow,” or less serious. He said the rise in coronavirus cases is “under control” but social distancing must still be observed.
As of August 1, Hamedan has had 3,050 coronavirus cases and 369 Covid-19 fatalities, announced Dr. Rashid Heydari Moghadam, president of Hamedan University of Medical Sciences. He also reported that 520 coronavirus patients are currently hospitalized across the province. He said 44 percent of infections in Hamedan had been the result of family contacts and 33 percent had been infected after attending weddings or other festive occasions. However, according to the leaked documents, as was reported by BBC Persian, as of July 20 the number of fatalities in Hamedan had reached 832.
The Daily Briefing
In her daily briefing, Dr. Lari said that the provinces of Tehran, Mazandaran, Golestan, Fars, East Azerbaijan, Ardebil, Isfahan, Alborz, Ilam, Razavi Khorasan, Kerman, North Khorasan, Semnan, Lorestan and Hormozgan continue to be in a red state of alert. The provinces of West Azerbaijan, Khuzestan, Bushehr, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Zanjan, Hamedan, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Markazi, Yazd, Gilan and Qom are still “orange.”
As has been the case, however, these figures do not match those presented by provincial authorities and universities specializing in medical sciences. According to these figures, the provinces of South Khorasan, Qazvin, Hamedan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Bushehr and Markazi have also been in a red state of alert for several days and the provinces of Kurdistan and Kermanshah have been left off the “orange” list.
In her briefing, Dr. Lari announced the official coronavirus statistics for the 24 hours ending at midday August 1:
- New coronavirus cases: 2,548
- New hospitalizations: 1,067
- Total cases since the outbreak: 306,752
- Total coronavirus tests conducted in Iran: 2,482,553
- Total recovered from coronavirus: 265,830
- New fatalities: 216
- Total death toll since the outbreak: 16,982
This is part of IranWire's coronavirus chronology. Read the full chronology
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