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Speaking of Iran

Perils of Prediction: Why it’s so Hard to Guess the Fallout of the Saudi-Iran Split

January 8, 2016
Speaking of Iran
Perils of Prediction: Why it’s so Hard to Guess the Fallout of the Saudi-Iran Split
Perils of Prediction: Why it’s so Hard to Guess the Fallout of the Saudi-Iran Split

BROOKINGS

BY KENNETH M. POLLACK

I want to sound a note of warning about recent developments between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It is the typical analytic tendency to predict that tomorrow will be essentially the same as yesterday and today. That’s because it is correct in the vast majority of cases.

 

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