Rouhani and the Potential Failure of Nuclear Talks

WILSON CENTER

BY FARIDEH FARHI

As Iran and the United States enter the last two months of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, the possibility that an agreement may not be reached is gradually being entertained in Tehran.

This was not always the case.

I was in Iran in the fall of 2013 when the Joint Plan of Action was signed and then again from May to August 2014. During this period, I found very few people willing to think out loud about the implications of a failure in talks. The seriousness of the nuclear talks and the support the nuclear team had received from all the key players and institutions in Iran had created for many people, particularly those who voted for Rouhani, a sense of inevitability regarding a positive outcome. When I asked about what will happen if nuclear talks fail, the almost uniform response of journalists, academics, taxi drivers, shopkeepers, and factory owners was expression of confidence that some sort of agreement will be reached. I could not get an answer to my question. “It will happen” was the usual response.

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