A Fighting Chance: Will Iran Make History?

The Iran team can do it. They can make football history. The key is in a strong defense.

Commentators—from celebrity experts to fans on social media—all agree: the Iran-Nigeria game was lackluster, slightly dull, uninspiring. But in recent days there’s been much praise for Iran’s powerful defenders, including from former footballer and broadcaster Gary Lineker. “In the qualifying round they conceded less goals that any other Asian team and they are capable of repeating this performance,” said Linekar, who scored more World Cup goals for England than any other player. Iran’s defense during the Nigeria game was not a one-off, he said.

Iranian sports commentator Adel Ferdosipour reminded fans that it was entirely possible to progress out of group stage with three draws. 

Iran’s manager, Carlos Queiroz, has a strong record of not conceding goals. In the 2010 World Cup, a Queiroz-led Portugal conceded only one goal; in 2007-2008, when Queiroz was assistant coach for Manchester United, the team beat Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals without conceding a goal. The team went on to win the championship. In those games, top players Lionel Messi, Andrés Iniesta and Xavi failed to break through Manchester United’s defensive line. It could be said that Carlos Queiroz is the master of not conceding goals.

But is it likely that Iran can get to the next round with three 0-0 draws? It of course depends on what happens in the Nigeria-Bosnia and Argentina-Nigeria games. If the match between Iran and Argentina results in a 0-0 result, a draw between Bosnia and Nigeria would be ideal: Iran and Nigeria would then be two points behind Argentina but Bosnia would be the last in the group.

If that happens, Argentina will have to defeat Nigeria to progress from the group stage as the first team. If Iran emerges from the match with Bosnia with a 0-0 draw, Iran will then have three points—the scenario would then be Argentina 7, Iran 3, Nigeria 2 and Bosnia 2— allowing the team to progress.

So it’s possible for Iran to make history without scoring a goal.  On Saturday, two things must happen: Iran must deny Argentina a further point and Nigeria and Bosnia-Herzegovina must draw.

At the moment, the chances of Bosnia progresing to the next round are better than those of Iran or Nigeria. Reputable betting sites make the odds of a Bosnian win 90/1, a Nigerian win 90/3, and draw between the two 50/3. The majority of betting sites forecast a Bosnian victory over Nigeria. Odds for the Iran-Argentina game place an Iranian victory at 5/16, and an Argentinian victory at 12/1. For Group F’s second day of matches, Argentina and Bosnia are the clear favorites to progress.

For Nigeria, a lot depends on the Iran-Argentina match. It could in many ways determine the team’s strategy against Bosnia. If Argentina defeats Iran, as is predicted, Nigeria will be somewhat satisfied in gaining one point against Bosnia. It would mean, of course, that, in its last game, Nigeria will be confronting a team that will emerge as the group’s number one side.

But it’s just possible Iran can hold Argentina off, given Queiroz’s record. Iranian fans can settle down to watch Saturday’s match fueled by hope and aspirations. It’s a huge challenge, but this is the World Cup. Anything can happen.