There is probably no starting 11 easier to predict than that of Argentina. Manager Alejandro Sabella has been extremely loyal to the same group of players and, while injuries have meant the side most likely to start the game against Bosnia-Herzegovina on June 15 has played together only once—against Uruguay in October 2012—Sabella’s template is obvious.
Ten of the probable 11 played in the goalless draw away to Romania in March, and seven of the probable 11 started the 3-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago in Buenos Aires on June 4. Only four of these 11 started in the game against Slovenia on June 7, but that was because Sabella made a conscious effort to give the back three a run-through and to make sure reserve players had a run out. The game ended with Argentina winning 2-0.
Against both Romania and Trinidad , the major changes came in the back four, which is probably the team’s weakness. Against Trinidad, Rodrigo Palacio and Ezequiel Lavezzi were used either side of Messi, but that was surely only a short-term measure to get them game time. The front six looks immovable, certainly now that Fernando Gago has recovered from a knee injury more quickly than expected.
Early on, Sabella made clear that he had no intention of selecting Carlos Tevez. At the last World Cup, coach Diego Maradona tried to cram both Tevez and Lionel Messi into the same side, but without success. A year later, political pressure meant Tevez was brought into Sergio Batista’s squad for the Copa America, but again he and Messi failed to gel. Sabella has reasoned that if he cannot play both, he would rather not have Tevez at all, given what a disruptive influence he can be if he is not playing and not at the center of things.
At the beginning of qualifying, Sabella experimented with a back three, using Messi and Gonzalo Higuain as a front pairing, but from the 3-0 victory over Uruguay in October 2012, the front three has been a regular feature, with Messi on the right, Higuain central and Sergio Aguero to the left. In a sense, the shape is a victory for simplicity. The attempts to use Messi in the false nine role he occupies for Barcelona have gone, and instead, he has reverted to the position he occupied when he first broke through at Barca, cutting in from the right flank onto his left foot.
That strategy is helped by the overlapping runs of Pablo Zabaleta—just as Dani Alves’ forward surges were such a feature of his early days at Barcelona. A left-back would naturally come a little infield when facing Messi, trying to protect against that diagonal burst on Messi’s left foot—that is, to a left-back’s weaker right side. With an attacking full-back supporting Messi, though, the fullback cannot come too far inside for fear of opening a channel for that overlapping player to burst into.
The combination of Higuain with two more technical players is tough for defenses as well. Against very technical players, it’s natural for defenses to drop deep, trying to deny players space to run into. The logic goes that you can allow a gifted player the ball, or space, but not both: even the very best dribblers can be neutered if they have no acceleration room. But Higuain is string and powerful in the air: against that sort of forward, defenses tend to push high so he is not attacking crosses close to goal. Argentina have both options, and that makes defending against them extremely difficult.
The doubts about the Argentina team are at the back. The goalkeeper Sergio Romero made only two league starts at Monaco—where he is on loan from Sampdoria—last season and Sabella’s refusal to consider Willy Caballero has promoted much head-scratching. Zabaleta is a combative and reliable right-back, but at left-back, Marcos Rojo is still yet to prove himself. Ezequiel Garay is a much sought-after center-back, but alongside him Sabella is likely to go for Napoli’s Federico Fernandez, who can appear cumbersome.
Fortunately, Javier Mascherano protects the back four. Mascherano is as good a destructive midfielder as exists in world football, even if he does tend to play in the center of defense for Barcelona. He snaps about, making challenges, and playing simple passes either to his right, to Fernando Gago, or left, to Angel Di Maria.
Di Maria has become a vital player both for Argentina and Real Madrid. His ability to carry the ball forward from midfield to link with the front three demonstrates not merely tremendous energy but also tactical intelligence, knowing when to run with the ball and when to play the pass. His attacking instincts are balanced by the fact Rojo, the fullback on his side, is relatively defensive.
On the other side, as Zabaleta goes forward, Gago naturally tucks in to provide cover on that flank. His role is to offer defensive cover with the odd forward surge, a job to which he is ideally suited: his form for Boca Juniors over the past year has been poor, but at national level he has excelled, which is why the knee injury he suffered in April was such a concern. He started against Trinidad and Tobago, though, playing the first half before being replaced by Lucas Biglia. Enzo Perez, who came on for Di Maria after 62 minutes, is another possible candidate for his position.
Argentina were comfortable winners against Trinidad. They’d already hit the bar and had a number of chances when Palacio headed from in front from a corer just before halftime. The Internazionale striker added a second six minutes after the break, turning the rebound into an empty net after Messi’s free kick had come back off the post. The substitute Maxi Rodriguez added a third 12 minutes after fine work by Palacio.
The Slovenia game brought a simple 2-0 victory, the second goal showing again the fine interplay between Messi and Aguero. So complete was Argentina’s domination that the crowd were ole-ing each pass long before the end. For them, preparation could hardly have gone any better. Gago is back, there are no new injuries, and there is no reason to doubt the 4-3-3. It will surely return for the game against Bosnia-Herzegovina next weekend.
Follow Jonathan Wilson on Twitter: @jonawils
Related: Read Nigeria vs. Greece, June 4
For further coverage of the World Cup, see:
“Iran Can Beat Any Team in the World”: Interview with Ciro Blažević
Nigeria’s Front Line: A Challenge for Team Melli
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