Iran’s moderate politicians have been celebrating significant gains in both parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections, with reformists hoping the victories will help usher in greater reforms.
The Iranian public went to the polls on February 26 to elect 290 members to parliament. In the first round of voting, the winning candidates for 230 seats were established, while the fate of 60 remaining seats will be decided in runoff elections in April. Reformists and supporters of President Rouhani and his administration secured 90 of the 230 seats. Principlists — politicians who claim their values and policies are closely aligned with the original ideals of the revolution — were successful in securing 105 seats, whereas independent politicians won 35 seats. Most principlists are considered to be somewhat moderate, and a number of them support the president.
Election forecasts indicate that the second round will deliver a further 40 seats to principlists, meaning that they will dominate half of parliament. It is also possible that principlists will successfully persuade some independent MPs to join their faction. If voting in the second round continues as expected, it is likely that hardliner representation in Iran’s next parliament will be less than 10 percent.
Rouhani’s strong relationship with the speaker of parliament, Ali Larijani — who played a crucial role in the success of the nuclear deal — also puts the administration in good stead. And it is likely that Larijani will continue in his role as speaker, again contributing to a more amenable environment for Rouhani. Some principlists who have put their weight behind Larijani have expressed plans to set up a new party. Other new parties with roots in the reformist camp will also enjoy a more receptive environment.
With so few hardliner MPs gaining success and more unification across parliament, it is clear that Rouhani’s government will find it easier to manouever and to introduce some of the economic and foreign relations policies the administration has championed over the last couple of years — a marked change from the ongoing battles between the two factions that defined parliament for the last two years.
While tensions over cultural and social policies will no doubt continue, it is unlikely that these tensions will have the weight they did when the hardliners dominated parliament, and they are unlikely to present any genuine problems for the government.
Reformists also hope to expand their influence to solve a number of domestic political issues, including the release of political prisoners and ending the house arrest of the Green Movement leaders by putting pressure on the Supreme Leader and the judiciary. Rouhani’s government will benefit from any success achieved on these issues, not least because it has been under considerable and persistent pressure — both domestically and internationally — to resolve these issues.
Elections results also put Rouhani in a strong position for the next presidential election, which is due to take place in 2017. Pro-Rouhani MPs have gained a platform to boost their agendas, and they will work hard to maintain this power.
Selecting the Next Supreme Leader
Moderates also gained in the elections for the 88-member Assembly of Experts. The new assembly is comprised of 32 new members and 56 members from the outgoing assembly. Former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani — one the Rouhani administration’s most valuable supporters — received the highest number of votes in Tehran, which has 16 representatives in the Assembly of Experts. President Rouhani, who is a member of the assembly, came in third. A number of senior opponents of Rafsanjani and Rouhani failed in their re-election bid, including Mohammad Yazdi, the current chairman of the assembly.
The defeat of these figures will widen the political divide between hardliners and reformists. The Head of the Judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, also a member of the assembly, has accused the reformists of cooperating with foreign media to drive out hardliners.
It is likely that either Hashemi Rafsanjani or a figure close to him — it could be President Rouhani himself — will be a candidate for the chairmanship of the assembly. Hardliners will do their best to prevent such an outcome.
The moderates’ stronger position will mean greater pressure around the process to select the next supreme leader. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 76 years old, and over the past two years, there has been increasing speculation about the state of his health. Some members of the Assembly of Experts have discussed the possibility of forming a secret three-member committee to choose his successor. These pressures, rumors, and secret talks have compounded to make the recent elections for the assembly more sensitive than usual. But the higher number of moderates in the assembly does not mean they have gained the power to choose the next supreme leader. Currently, that power rests primarily with the current supreme leader, and to a lesser degree with military institutions such the Revolutionary Guards. But regardless, the moderates are in a better bargaining position than they were before.
February 26’s elections clearly demonstrate the shifts in the Iranian political landscape. Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad successfully marginalized some political groups, especially moderates and reformists. But the results for these elections show that both groups have returned to the political center stage, commanding more power than they have for years.
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