Jalili, The Favored Unknown

When the 21-year-old watch guard of Khorasan’s Nasr Division was injured by Iraqi forces and lost his right leg, perhaps he never thought that in less than three decades he would go so far up the ladder of political power as to be vying for the position of president someday.

But 27 years after the injury that led to Jalili’s wearing an artificial leg for the rest of his life, the youngest presidential candidate enjoys a position known by many of his supporters and critics as “Ayatollah Khamenei’s favorite candidate.” Many believe that his lack of management experience  does not reduce his chances of winning.

From among Jalili’s long list of supporters, at least the head of Iran’s Hezbollah Coordinating Council, Hossein Allahkaram, is sure that he will get the votes he needs “100 percent.” According to Nasim News Agency, Allahkaram told a group of Jalili’s supporters in Mashhad this week: “Jalili wants to return the train that was derailed from the revolutionary track by the deviant current [referring to Ahmadinejad and his inner circle]. In a normally held election, Jalili will get the votes and I will prove it. Based on his social capital, Jalili will get the votes 100 percent.”

If we ignore the considerable news coverage of conservative websites in support of Jalili, it will be very difficult to gauge the real extent his popularity among Iranians. Regime limitations have made conducting polls impossible, but even the polls conducted by unknown organizations and announced by the media have presented different and sometimes contradictory levels of popularity for Jalili. In the poll results announced by semi-official ISNA News Agency, simultaneous with the broadcast of the first debate among the candidates on May 31st, it appears that only 7 percent of the 15,000 poll participants agreed with Jalili’s viewpoints. The head of the Jalili campaign in Tehran, however, claimed a few days after the debate that next to Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Ali Akbar Velayati, Jalili is leading.

Independent analysts view the results of Iran’s official and semi-official polls with doubt. On Monday, June 3, Fars News reported a poll conducted by “a reliable center” showing Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf  as the two most popular candidates. Fars did not mention what organization or group conducted the poll, but wrote, “according to a field research conducted by a reliable polling center, the participation level of people in the upcoming presidential election will be close to 72 precent, and three Principalist candidates will lead the list...the poll results came from 22,750 poll participants in 31 provinces, 120 towns, and 250 villages, indicating that total votes of Principalists has passed 53 percent and all three top candidates are from among the Principalists. This means that if there is consensus among the Principalists, they can hope to win the elections in the first round. According to this poll, Qalibaf and Jalili remain at the top of public popularity.”

One issue is that conservatives are not so sure about Jalili's competence to handle the presidency, and a group of Principalists doubt his efficiency. Alef Website, which belongs to conservative MPAhmad Tavakoli, published an article this week in which the author criticized Ansar Hezbollah for supporting “the least efficient option” in the presidential race.

In similar statements, Tehran University Professor Sadegh Zibakalam has said that “Saeed Jalili’s operational capabilities as a president are unknown. Unlike many other right wing figures, he does not use harsh rhetoric. Of course this characteristic is not sufficient for becoming the president, because there must be many management abilities for the head of the cabinet. If we could compare, I believe that in the best situation Saeed Jalili could by Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister, or the Vice Chancellor at Imam Sadegh University.”

Despite much talk of Jalili as Khamenei's favorite, Farideh Farhi, a scholar from Hawaii University, sees Jalili’s lack of experience as a reason to view these claims with doubt. “Some observers are presenting Jalili as Khamenei's favorite. But just a short while ago, former foreign minister Velayati was presumed to be his favorite. The problem with the assumption that Jalili is already Khamenei's preferred candidate is that among the approved candidates, Jalili is by far the most inexperienced,” she told Council on Foreign Relations.

“Khamenei is already faced with criticism, even if not openly expressed, for the support he has given to men who have not done a good job managing the Iranian economy in the face of severe external pressures and economic sanctions. Hence, pushing for the candidacy of someone with little economic experience when economy is the most important campaign issue is probably not the wisest thing to do,” Farhi added.

In at least two recent speeches Khamenei has asked people to vote for a candidate who has characteristics such as “endurance,” “determination and perseverance” against enemies. If one is forced to read between the lines, and tries to intuit whom the managing editor of Kayhan newspaper is referring to as 'Super Hezbollahi', a candidate emerges who, perhaps among the eight presidential candidates, bears the most resemblance to the favorite president of Ayatollah Khamenei.  Jalili has a Ph.D. in political science from Imam Sadegh University and his final thesis dissertation was entitled “The Prophet’s Foreign Policy.”

For example, during a talk addressing the students of Imam Hossein Military University last week, Mr. Khamenei said, “[P]eople should look at statements made by candidates who can work towards the country’s future to bring it national honor, endurance against the enemies, and setting an example of the Islamic Republic in the eyes of the world’s disenfranchised, and vote for him.”

In recent weeks Jalili has strained to reflect Mr. Khamenei’s “standards” in his talks. “One of the threats affecting the country today is that what is a cause of weakness is described as a point of strength, and what is a point of strength, is described as a point of weakness... my question to those who say we must strive to reduce tension today is whether our nation is in tension? What we must set as a principle in our foreign policy is not reducing tension, it should be to reduce threats,” Jalili said at a gathering of his supporters inside Qom’s Imam Hassan Askari Mosque.

Jalili’s position as the representative of the Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the nuclear negotiations, as well as his work experience at Mr. Khamenei’s office is one of the other reasons many political analysts inside and even outside the country believe that he has a higher chance at victory.

This has led  Khamenei to state his impartiality during at least two speeches recently. “Of course such talk that the Leader supports so and so or such and such, is the kind of talk that has always existed and is not true. Most of those who say this, know that it is not true. How do they know whom I support? Nobody hears this from me, they have never heard this before, they don’t hear it now, and they will not hear it henceforth,” said Mr. Khamenei during a meeting with Members of the Iranian Parliament last week.

“They make guesses. The less these guesses are mentioned, the better. They don’t know that I have one vote, just like others. I said that day among the Guard student brothers: You may have your mind on an individual, and I may have my mind on another individual. What is wrong with that? You like one person, and I like another, there is no problem. You may have a perception of an individual and I may not share that perception, there is nothing wrong with that. It’s not like I should understand whatever you understand, or that you should understand whatever I understand,” he said.

“While Ayatollah Khamenei is officially neutral, Mr. Jalili’s speeches and viewpoints closely resemble the leader’s worldview of an Iran engaged in a multifaceted battle with the West,” wrote Thomas Erdbrink, the New York Times reporter in Tehran, in a recent report. The report added that websites and news agencies close the IRGC, such as Fars News Agency, are using milder literature for their news coverage of Mr. Jalili’s campaign.

But Jalili, whose supporters refer to him as “the living martyr” in their elections slogans, said, “the Supreme Leader’s position is a lot higher than having a candidate. But this does not mean that I entered [the race] without his permission.”

Following many contradictory reports about his support of Jalili, Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, an influential cleric close to Ayatollah Khamenei, met with him last week and formally lent his support to him as a presidential race candidate.

“After Mr. Bagheri Lankarani, all our friends determined that the most qualified of all is Mr. Jalili and we hope that he will be the one with whose hands the the Islamic values are revived, and that he would be the Supreme Leader’s best aide,” said Mr. Mesbah Yazdi after the meeting. “This is a source of joy for us. The support of a valuable figure such as Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi is a cause of joy,” Jalili said, in response.