Alarming Statistics of Coronavirus Cases in Iran

According to official statistics, by 11 March, the number of confirmed new coronavirus patients in Iran had risen to 9,000 people.

If this number is compared with a population of 83 million Iranians, we reach the conclusion that for every 9,200 people in Iran, one has contracted the new coronavirus to date. In other words, the chances of a person contracting the virus are 1 in 9,200.

If we compare this figure with the rate of infection across the world, and in countries that have been seriously affected by the virus, we can get a picture of the situation in Iran.

According to the online map of Johns Hopkins University, up until 630am (Tehran time) on 12 March, more than 126,000 people were confirmed positive for coronavirus infections worldwide. Comparing this figure with a population of 7.7 billion people, we reach the conclusion that for every 61,000 people on the planet, at least one person is definitely infected with the coronavirus.  

The situation has calmed down in China and the total number of coronavirus cases (confirmed) there is nearly 81,000 people. This means that for every 17,000 Chinese, one person has been infected with coronavirus. However, the infection rates in different areas of China have varied; in Hubei Province, with a population of 56 million, which was the main focus of coronavirus, about 68,000 people are confirmed to have been infected. Hubei’s infection rate is 1 out of 820.

Similarly, the ratio in Italy to date, with a population of 60 million and more than 15,000 affected, is 1 to 4,000 people. The ratio in South Korea, with 52 million people and nearly 8,000 infected, is 1 in every 6,500 people. 

It should be noted that these figures, both in Iran and in other countries, are based on official statistics of the number of people confirmed to have been infected with coronavirus. The numbers will likely change with the addition of suspicious cases or by identifying more cases, but so far these figures give a picture of the situation in different countries. 

Although Iran's situation – according to official statistics – is relatively better than that of Italy and South Korea, the infection rate is higher than that of China.

But what is the situation in different provinces of Iran?

According to yesterday's figures, the provinces of Tehran, Mazandaran, Qom, Isfahan and Gilan have the highest number of cases among Iran’s 31 provinces. Confirmed infection cases in Tehran are 2,370, 918 in Mazandaran, 804 in Qom 804, 788 in Isfahan, and 529 in Gilan.

Most of these provinces are highly populated regions of the country, with relatively high rates of infection which is not abnormal due to the population and density of these provinces. 

But what is the status of the provinces according to their population, and in which provinces is the rate of infection higher than the rest? 

The following table shows the rate of coronavirus infection in 31 provinces. The table is arranged according to the rate of infection from high to low. The top rows are the provinces with the highest chance of being infected with coronavirus, according to official statistics as of 12 March, and the bottom rows are the ones that have lower infection rates.

As can be seen from the table, the situation in Qom, Semnan, Markazi, Mazandaran, and Qazvin provinces is worse than the rest of the provinces and these five provinces have the highest rate of coronavirus infection throughout Iran.

Calculations on the chances of being infected by coronavirus show that 1 in 1,700 people in Qom will be infected;, in Semnan, 1 in 2,600 people, in Markazi province 1 in 3,300 people, in Mazandaran 1 in 3,700, and in Qazvin, 1 in 4,700 people can be infected with the virus.

In Tehran, with the highest number of cases of infection in the entire country to date,1 person in 5,800 will be infected.

At the bottom of the table, the provinces of Bushehr, Sistan and Baluchistan, Kohkiluyeh and Boyerahmad, Kerman, and Khuzestan have been relatively less affected. The coronavirus infection rate in the last four provinces is below the global average. 

But at the top of the table, the situation is critical. Qom is only 800 cases short of the record in China's Hubei province. The chances of coronavirus infection in Qom province, with 804 cases detected by 11 March, is 1 in 1,700. One out of every 1,700 Qom citizens is or will be officially affected by coronavirus. This is 10 times the average rate of China. It is sufficient to add 800 cases to the official statistics of Qom (if the situation remains stable in China), to equal to coronavirus infection rates in Wuhan, China.