Survey: How Does Ayatollah Khamenei Make His Decisions?

The nuclear accord between Iran and the 5+1 group of countries in Lausanne, Switzerland, has revived discussions and arguments about the extent of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s role and influence in reaching high-level decisions in Iran. With recent developments, this question has acquired new significance: public opinion, both in Iran and across the world, overwhelmingly views Khamenei as the ultimate decision-maker with regards to the nuclear issue.

On April 4, in an interview with the New York Times, President Obama exemplified how many perceive Ayatollah Khamenei’s role and intentions in the nuclear negotiations by saying, “He’s a pretty tough read,” in reference to letters he has received from him. The letters, Obama said, are filled with “a lot of reminders of what he perceives as past grievances against Iran.” But Mr. Obama also said it was telling that the ayatollah allowed his negotiators to make concessions, and he held out hope that the agreement would empower more moderate figures, although he said he was not counting on it.

Khamenei became Iran’s supreme leader in 1989 following the death of Rouhollah Khomeini, the founder of the 1979 Islamic revolution. Iran’s assembly of experts, a powerful clerical body that appoints and dismisses the supreme leader, appointed Khamenei.

In the run-up to the March 30 deadline for reaching a nuclear deal - a timeline that was ultimately delayed - IranWire asked its Persian-language readers in a survey, ‘How does Ayatollah Khamenei make his decisions?”

Readers could answer that the Supreme Leader made decisions without consulting anybody else; by taking into consideration the viewpoints of the Revolutionary Guards and his inner circle; by consulting a whole host of people and bodies and by taking into account the situation in Iran and the world at large or by selecting “none of the above.”

Just over a tenth of respondents said the Supreme Leader made his decisions singlehandedly, therefore suggesting he loses out on gaining valuable intelligence and insight from relevant experts that may be crucial in him coming to a well-informed decision.

However the most popular response - that he makes decisions having only consulted his inner circle of advisors and the Revolutionary Guards – received nearly half of the vote. In recent years, Khamenei has been accused of ignoring public opinion by instead making decisions under the influence of his closest advisors. This poll would suggest respondents still feel this is the case.

The second most popular response - that the Supreme Leader consults both his inner circle, the Revolutionary Guards, nuclear and foreign ministry experts and takes into account the situation in Iran and the world at large – secured more than a third of votes. This shows that a significant amount of IranWire’s Persian language readers believe Khamenei considers a range of views, both hardliner and reformist, and looks beyond Iran’s borders when forming an opinion on something.

It is also worth noting that the poll results demonstrate that 83 percent of IranWire readers believe that military institutions like the Revolutionary Guards and Khamenei’s inner circle of advisors play a significant role in his decision making.

Lastly, five percent responded that they did not agree with any of the three choices above. This small category of respondents is most likely representative of the fact that over the past three decades, the process of decision-making at the highest levels of the Islamic Republic has been opaque and characterized by inadequate accountability and democratic oversight. In many instances, politicians and influential clerics alike have refused to take responsibility for key decisions and their consequences.

The nuclear issue is a clear example of this opaque process. Iran’s statesmen have said the success of a deal rests on the shoulders of the Supreme Leader who continuously meddles in negotiations every step of the way – this has restricted their ability to make progress. On the other hand, Khamenei’s supporters accuse politicians, such as President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif, of betraying the Supreme Leader by ignoring his red lines. The outcome: Iran’s political landscape is chaotic, a situation that is rife with accusations and bereft of accountability.