What the People Say: Iran and the Nuclear Deal

A hundred yards away from Railroad Square in southern Tehran, nestled between a kebab shop and a pizza parlor, is a small store. Everything imaginable sits in its large display window, from hookahs of all sizes, watches, and rings made of agate to charcoal, notebooks and a large selection of magnifying glasses.

The shop owner looks about 45 years old and appears to have a somber disposition. I wait a few minutes for his customers to thin out and then ask him:  has he been following the nuclear negotiations?  His response is short and somewhat indifferent: “Don’t I have anything better to do?”

At first, the shopkeeper does not say much. But, after a few questions, he begins to talk. “They negotiate for their own sakes, not for me and you. Imagine there is an agreement. What do you get out of it? What do I get out of it? Would my shop grow bigger? Would your clothes become nicer? Would it put anything on my table? No. I only pray that they will not take anything away from my table. They can have their agreement.”

Outside the shop, the owner has set up scales. Passersby weigh themselves and then pay him a small fee. A woman in her thirties weighs herself, but then complains that the scales are wrong. A quarrel ensues, but the customer eventually loses, paying the shopkeeper 200 tomans, roughly seven cents.

I ask the customer — Marzieh, a housewife with three sons — what she thinks about news coverage of the talks. “It’s not like we sit around all day and follow what’s happening, but you hear the news from satellite channels,” she says. “Now they say they’re close to an agreement. They’ve been saying that for a couple of years.” She laughs. “If they’re so close, why don’t they agree? We hope Mr. Zarif can solve this problem. People are exhausted. Everything is expensive and we have to deal with more and more problems every year. We hope the sanctions will come to an end so we can live like human beings, like we did before. They should solve their problems with foreigners so our problems can be solved. Why should we deal with their problems? I ask Mr. Zarif to solve this. May God help him to get it over with.”

Mahmoud is 32 years old. He and his girlfriend are browsing at a bookshop in northern Tehran. Mahmoud studied architecture in Vienna and returned to Iran in May 2014. He is very optimistic. “Everything is going forward excellently,” he says. “The Iranians and the Americans are after a big thing — and a big thing requires patience, which both sides do have. We all have patience. Maybe they’ll reach an acceptable agreement very soon and we can celebrate. It might seem that we’re in no mood to celebrate but I will tell you this: We would all come out on the streets to celebrate, just like we did when Rouhani got elected, or when we got into the World Cup. Of course, I was not in Iran then so I want to compensate for that. I am sure there will be an agreement.”

Maliheh, a 27-year-old genetics lab researcher, interrupts her boyfriend. “I believe there will be an agreement too. The proof is in the loutish behavior of Netanyahu and the senators who adore him. If they’d not known that Obama is after an agreement, they would not have behaved in this shameful way.”

Reasons to be Hopeful?

In February, a Gallup poll revealed that a high percentage of Iranian people were optimistic that a nuclear agreement would be reached. The results were based on telephone interviews with 1,005 people, aged 15 and older, that were conducted in November 2014. Those taking the survey were asked:  “How hopeful are you that the current talks about Iran’s nuclear program between Iran and the West will eventually reach an agreement that is agreeable to both sides?”

Overall, about 70 percent of respondents responded positively. Of these, 22 percent were “very hopeful” and 48 percent were “somewhat hopeful”.

In a previous poll, conducted in May 2013 — when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was still president — Iranians were less hopeful. Then, only 13 percent were “very hopeful;” 45 percent were “somewhat hopeful”.

In the recent survey, 10 percent of people were “not very hopeful” and 12 percent were “not at all hopeful”. Seven percent were unaware the negotiations were happening.

Among those expressing serious doubt is the owner of a seafood shop in Niavaran, a northern Tehran neighborhood. “It seems as though an agreement can be reached, but they just won’t let it,” he says. “For the past 35 years they’ve said that we won’t make peace with the US, that America is the enemy, is Satan, is bad, is this, is that, etcetera. Now they want to make peace? The Revolutionary Guards won’t allow it — then they’ll have to give concessions on everything. I mean, if they make peace after the sanctions, they’ll be sending a signal to America that if it imposes sanctions on us over other issues as well, we’d be willing to make peace then too. No, they will not make peace over the nuclear issue.”

No Agreement = Disaster for the Economy

“An agreement is certain,” a senior member of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, who asked to remain anonymous, told IranWire. “Announcing the news during the Nowruz holidays [March 21-April 2] has three advantages. First, the government avoids a shock to the market; it will have time to manage it from April 3 on. Second, the people of Tehran are on their holiday travels, so there will be no street demonstrations, no crowds mobbing the streets. Third, newspapers are closed.  Reformists will not be able to take advantage of the situation via the media.”

He is hopeful about the future of Iran’s economy. “Business is paralyzed because of the sanctions,” he says. “Everybody knows this — the regime, the government and the Revolutionary Guards. Nobody is benefitting from this situation. The ship has taken enough water. Everybody is taking this seriously. There is a strong possibility that the ship — the economy — could sink.”

But 22-year-old Massoud could not disagree more. A member of the paramilitary Basij headquarters in Tehran Pars, he tells IranWire, “Of course America prays for an agreement, because the sanctions have not worked. The people and the regime are standing firm, and the Americans have only discredited themselves. As the Supreme Leader says, the Americans are shifty and traitorous. Zarif’s team is completely ignorant of this. Or maybe it isn’t; maybe it is to their advantage to pretend. But the Leader and his soldiers are on guard. The Americans will not agree without trickery — and the regime will not bow to pressure. Hoping for an agreement is like hoping that you can drink from a desert mirage. The Koran says that truth and falsehood cannot agree. They cannot make peace.”

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