Cassandra, Deedes and Me

By any measure, Brigadier General Wyndham Deedes was a remarkable man.  A veteran of British intelligence in the Middle East before the First World War, he accepted a post as advisor to the Turkish government.  By age 31 he spoke fluent Turkish and knew most of the so-called Young Turks – the group of political reformers committed to overthrowing the sultan’s autocratic rule.

As the Ottoman Empire collapsed, Deedes tried to warn his political superiors that turbulence and ruthless Turkish leadership posed great danger to Britain’s foreign policy. They didn’t want to hear it. He was branded a Cassandra.

There is a certain honor in being a Cassandra. It means being right.  On the other hand, it also means being ignored.

The best known version of the myth goes like this.

Cassandra, a.k.a. Alexandra or Kassandra, was the beautiful daughter of King Priam and Queen Hecuba of Troy.

Apollo, desiring her, tried to win her favor by giving her the power of prophecy. Ultimately though, she rejected him.  Furious, Apollo spat in her mouth – thereby cursing her.  She would in future foretell events accurately, but never be believed.

Deedes served in the Ottoman government under a famous – some would say infamous – minister named Mehmet Talaat. Talaat was the main architect of the Armenian genocide. Deedes tried to tell his government about Talaat and the political party he led, but the staff at the British Embassy in Constantinople believed they knew better.  Deedes’s counsel and cautions were ignored, though history would prove him right.

Fast forward to 2001 and the eve of President Khatami’s second election victory. One of the apparently adamant reformists (who, incidentally, fled in 2009, and I believe ended up at the US-government-funded Radio Farda) asked me what political reforms President Khatami should carry out.

I answered candidly, “Quit the race for a second presidential term and retire. Or try to make radical reforms from a position completely independent of the state and government.”

Fundamentally, I believe that no one can make the root and branch changes Iran needs from within the system.

She scowled at me, and tried to steer the conversation toward a story in the news at the time about a rape.

But as we all now know, the pseudo reform Khatami proposed foundered and there was a violent backlash. 

After she fled abroad and sought asylum, I sent her a message.

So, have you owned up to your mistake – believing in and campaigning for superficial reform? You managed to escape the fallout, but what about all the people you encouraged to vote for the duplicitous promises of Mr. Khatami?"

She never answered.

These days, we’re seeing another surge of false optimism. On university campuses, reformist politicians are promising that if the majority of the seats in the parliament go to  pro-Khatami and pro-Rouhani people, the winds of change will sweep away Iran’s ruling establishment

Western governments collude in this delusion.  Do they really believe that reformists are gaining the upper hand, thanks to the nuclear deal?  And that there is a real political will to bring things like freedom of expression and the rule of law to Iran? Haven’t they noticed the recent crackdowns on the opposition, on intellectuals, journalists and artists?

Like Wyndham Deedes, and Cassandra herself, I try to tell the unwelcome truth, knowing it is falling on deaf ears.