Power Matters. People Matter More

The elections in Iran are important even if they are unfair. That's a given. The people, and the world, will have to live and deal with the new government. Its policies and actions will make a difference on the lives of every citizen. But that's true of every government. It was also important when North Korea got its new leader. Even Saddam stayed in power through elections. So did Mubarak. So has Castro and many other dictators.

But what is more important to Iranian civil society, the future of the country and its relationship with the world is the quality of the elections. What's missing in most of the ongoing debate is the disillusionment of the vast majority of Iranians. We need to shift focus from the games being played by the regime to its growing weakness and desperation.

The fact the majority of the Iranian electorate have voted for one of the eight pre-approved candidates is not an indication that all is well with the Islamic Republic. The people vote simply because it is the only choice they have. They must choose between bad and worse. They want some relief from their current misery, no matter how small it may be. That does not mean they approve of the status quo.

These kinds of "votes" are meaningless when we look at the rotten nature of totalitarian states and their sham elections. The same people who voted Mubarak and Saddam into power gladly got rid of them when they had the opportunity.

Iranian elections are not as bad as some others, but they are still fundamentally flawed. They are not even close to representing the aspirations of the vast majority. It's not hard to see why. Every election cycle since the 1979 Revolution has seen the erosion of choices. With the fall of the Shah, there were a dozen or more secular and religious parties actively participating. Today it's down to a small religious minority that cannot even tolerate Rafsanjani, Mousavi, Karroubi and Ahmadinejad, let alone all those sitting in prison or silenced.

Basically the 98% who voted for the Islamic Republic has been cut down to 2%. That's not a scientific assessment but a pretty good guess if we look at all those who have been eliminated from the political scene, those who remain, as well as others who will inevitably drop out in the coming years under the absolute rule of Velayate Faghih.

If we believe Iranians believe they are sheep following a shepherd, fine. But they are not. Those who filled the streets four years ago to protest against Ahmadinejad's fraudulent victory have not gone away. They are still angry. Millions of others who voted for Ahmadinejad have been left disappointed as well. Add the students who are crying for change, the women who continue to be treated as less than human, the religious minorities harassed by an absolutist Islamic regime, the ethnic minorities who are denied basic cultural freedoms, the families of thousands executed or imprisoned for their views, the millions who escaped or abandoned the country… the list goes on and on.

The leaders of the Islamic Republic are afraid. And very lonely. They are in power but increasingly on hollow ground. Opposition is everywhere. It may not have a leader but it's real and relevant.